Bitcoin January Dip is a Path for a Bull Run, Here is Why!
Bitcoin past cycles demonstrate a correlation between BTC halving events and peak BTC dominance, typically occurring approximately three years post-halving.
Bitcoin (BTC) price drops in January, particularly in the years following a halving event, indicate a January path for an expected Bull Run.
Notably, Bitcoin halving occurs approximately every four years, reducing the reward miners receive for validating transactions by half.
Bitcoin Historical Data Reveals a Pattern
in January 2017, BTC plummeted from $1,185 to $800; in January 2021, a similar decline occurred, from $42,000 to $28,000.
The most recent instance, in January 2025, witnessed a drop from $103,000 to $92,000. The subsequent performance of BTC following these January dips offers valuable insights.
Past cycles demonstrate a correlation between BTC halving events and peak BTC dominance, typically occurring approximately three years post-halving.
Current indicators, however, suggest a potential divergence from this pattern. The recent decline in BTC dominance from 62% to 54% in November and December 2024, coupled with the parabolic rise of alternative cryptocurrencies (alts), indicates a possible shift in market dynamics.
Notably, a further decrease in BTC dominance to 50% or 45% could significantly benefit altcoin investments.
Post-Presidential Inauguration Altseason
Historically, the period following a US Presidential inauguration has witnessed substantial altcoin market growth.
Additionally, the January 2017 altcoin market capitalization, initially at $730 million, dropped to $590 million within a week but surged to $20 billion by May—a 28x increase in five months.
A similar pattern unfolded in 2021, with a market cap increase from $330 billion to $1.5 trillion between January and May, representing a 400% rise.
Moreover, this post-inauguration alt-season surge is primarily attributed to increased liquidity. New presidential administrations often implement policies involving increased government spending and potentially lower interest rates, both of which can positively impact cryptocurrency markets.
Recent statements by former President Trump advocating for lower interest rates further support this thesis. Regardless of the specific administration, a potential devaluation of the US dollar is likely to drive increased demand for cryptocurrencies.
On-Chain Indicators: Whale Activity and Accumulation
On-chain data reveals a cyclical pattern of whale activity. Following the November 2024 ATH, whales engaged in offloading BTC, a common occurrence during bull cycles.
However, recent weeks have shown a resumption of BTC accumulation by whales, indicating a potential consolidation phase. This accumulation generally precedes a subsequent uptrend, albeit a potentially slower one.
Nonetheless, while a further BTC price correction to the $86,000-$88,000 range is possible, it aligns with typical bull market corrections.
