In a notable development reflecting the crypto market’s inherent volatility, Kalshi’s prediction data reveals a significant shift in the odds of Bitcoin reaching $100,000 before December, plummeting from 88% to 36%.

Kalshi is a financial technology company that operates a prediction market for trading event contracts. On the platform, users can make predictions on various events and outcomes, including crypto, and others can buy or sell contracts based on those predictions.

Initially, the platform predicted an 88% likelihood of Bitcoin reaching $100,000 before December, but this probability drastically fell to 36% after the cryptocurrency’s sudden price drop from approximately $98,000 to $94,000 within a few hours.

Will Bitcoin Continue Its Bull Run into 2025 or Reverse into a Bear Market?

Although Kelshi’s bets show Bitcoin’s $100,000 odds plummeting from 88% to 36%, it’s important to note that this shift doesn’t automatically translate to a continued downward trend in the crypto asset’s value.

The crypto market’s notorious unpredictability means Bitcoin’s path forward is uncertain, with possible outcomes including further losses or a stunning comeback to $100,000 by December, followed by a sustained bull run in 2025.

In a recent development, CryptoQuant CEO Ki Young Ju stated that almost all Bitcoin investors (99.3%) are currently making a profit, indicating an overly optimistic market. Historically, a typical ‘euphoric’ phase usually lasts between 3-12 months, except for a brief period in November 2021.

However, at the time of that report, Bitcoin’s price had decreased by 0.86% within 24 hours, and on-chain metrics suggested a potential 10% correction to $80,000. Therefore, Bitcoin could potentially flip to $100k or drop to $80k emphasizing the volatility of the market.

Can Bitcoin Still Make it to $100k by December?

While uncertain, several factors could propel Bitcoin toward the $100,000 milestone by December, despite the possibility of a significant price correction.

Gary Gensler, the current chairman of the United States Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), has announced his departure from the agency, effective January 20th, 2025.

Gary Gensler’s impending departure from the SEC could pave the way for a more crypto-friendly chairman to take the reins, potentially ushering in a regulatory environment that is more conducive to the growth and adoption of cryptocurrencies, which in turn could lead to an increase in crypto prices.