10X Research Claim Bitcoin Market Momentum Could Pullback from $110k Before FOMC Meeting

10X Research claims the Bitcoin market faces a possible complex twist following the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting on 29th January after Trump’s inauguration.

On January 5th, 10x Research founder Markus Thielen projected a positive early January start, followed by a slight pullback before the CPI release, and a subsequent rally leading up to President Trump’s inauguration. Thielen noted that a positive CPI report could significantly bolster market optimism.

However, he cautioned that this positive momentum might wane before the January 29th FOMC meeting. CME Group’s FedWatch tool currently indicates an 88.8% probability that the US federal target rate will remain within the 425-450 basis point range following this meeting.

10X Research Says Bitcoin May Not Follow 2024 Trajectory

The period from January to mid-November 2024 witnessed a substantial increase in Bitcoin dominance, rising from 50% to 60%, thereby hindering altcoin performance. A brief dip to 53% within three weeks briefly fueled altcoin season expectations, yet the dominance indicator swiftly rebounded to nearly 58% before stabilizing around 55%.

While a sense of cautious optimism prevails, the market’s trajectory is far from predictable, characterized by tactical trading ranges rather than sustained, directional trends. Opportunities for strategic positioning exist, however, particularly in select sectors.

The early January exuberance, typical of the New Year period, should not be interpreted as a harbinger of the sustained bullish sentiment witnessed from late January to March 2024, or late September to mid-December 2024.

“We anticipate a positive market opening, followed by a minor pullback in anticipation of the January 15th Consumer Price Index (CPI) data release. A favorable inflation report could re-ignite investor confidence, potentially fueling a rally culminating in the January 20th presidential inauguration, this momentum, however, is likely to be transient, with a subsequent market retreat anticipated ahead of the January 29th FOMC meeting.”10X Research asserted.

Federal Reserve Decision Could Halt BTC Momentum

The Federal Reserve’s decisions remain a pivotal factor. Bitcoin experienced a near 15% drop to approximately $92,800 following the December 18th FOMC meeting, where projected interest rate cuts for 2025 were reduced from five to two.

Thielen identifies the Federal Reserve’s announcements as the primary risk influencing Bitcoin’s price trajectory in 2025. He emphasizes the importance of institutional investor participation, as reflected in stablecoin minting and Bitcoin ETF inflows, as another key determinant of market performance. Thielen projects Bitcoin to trade within the $97,000-$98,000 range by the end of January.

Conversely, John Glover, Chief Investment Officer at Ledn, suggests a potential Bitcoin pullback to $89,000 before a rebound to $125,000 by the end of the first quarter. He further anticipates a subsequent retracement to $100,000, followed by a potential rise towards $160,000 in late 2025 or early 2026. This prediction is comparatively conservative when contrasted with the $180,000 and $200,000 projections made by VanEck and Bitwise, respectively.